New York Times numbers guru Nate Silver says recent polling clearly shows President Obama as the front runner. While the lead may be small, Silver concedes, likening it to a one-touchdown lead in football game, “late in the fourth quarter, that can become pretty meaningful especially if you have kind of have possession of the football.”
“Obama got a convention bounce and it seemed like his momentum was flagging a bit and then frankly since [Romney’s] 47 percent [comments] came out, now you’re seeing Obama with numbers as strong as they’ve been all year,” he said.
Silver, who puts the president’s chance of winning re-election at 80 percent, has gained a reputation for his political prognosticating. In 2008, he correctly picked 49 out of the 50 states in the presidential race, as well as the eventual winner in all 35 senate races. His new book, The Signal and the Noise, looks at, as the subtitle suggests, "why so many predictions fail - but some don't."
Watch David's entire PRESS Pass interview with Nate Silver above to hear more about the 2012 race, and what sports can teach us about predicting elections.
Leave a Comment:
Silver is a ranK and file leftie Obama bum kisser and as such, has no credibility in anything he says or thinks politically! Caveat emptor with this leftie!
as if you might ?
Another intelligent and informative post...lol.
Art Stevens is dumber than a doorknob!
I look at the comments on Nate's site daily. I also periodically look at comments in the NYT, LAT and WP. There appears to be a vitriol that I see in the comments in the regular media posts that I rarely see on Nate's site. It's a different class of people and for anyone interested in learning and not just attempting to make some inane political or social point, it is the place to go.
How do you type in rasberry sounds, in response to someones dopey post?
Nothing out of the NYT is news, it's Far Left propaganda.
Some people like to work with numbers. Some like to make rude comments or make things up. Nate likes numbers, and I like to see that for a change.
Not surprising that those who can't spell and can't get a persons name correct are voting for Obama.
I see just as many in the Tea Party....
Oh, mh? We could make comments about your use of the English language and associate that with your voting affiliation. Then we could announce that all who use, "persons" instead of "person's" in that situation were all voting for a certain candidate.
Or we could just recognize that you probably just personally don't know how to use the word correctly in your sentence. I think it's most likely your issue, not all who vote for a certain party, but that's just my opinion.
You lost me at "New York Times guru".
Why no story on the early voting volume in Cleveland, Ohio, which is 2/3's Democrat, that volume is down 44%. That is hugh! Again, why no story on that?
Maybe because it doesn't prop up Obama.
More BS from the Far Left Media/Press, prostitutes for Obama.
lots of stories on supressing the vote by republicans.
The new GOP whine is upon us....it ranks right up there with death panels, maxist , socialism, nazi, commie, paling with terrorists, musylum, and the rest of the rhetoric that shows the GOP intelligence......its a lame stream media conspiracy i tell ya, yea thats it !!! LMFAO !!! They all against us , all them news organizations.....yea, uh huh !! funny how its everyone elses fault cause their candidate proves over and over he stinks !!!
marxist , not maxist.....oppsss !!!
Of course they dont poll republicans , they all jumping ship and joining the independents.......lol
It's really unfortunate that so many people have been duped into Obamas vision for America. He wants us to be just like Greece, Spain and the rest of that bankrupt lot. This will turn out very badly for the people of this country. His term is not yet over and yet we have 20 million more on food stamps, millions more on welfare, a 7% haircut in the value of each dollar we have, 20% real unemployment, and much higher energy prices. Almost all of this is by design as he wants to bring America down from within. He tells the people forward!, when all we have done is take tremendous steps backward, economically and in liberty. The frogs don't even know that they are in a kettle of boiling water and the man smiling at them and pandering for their vote is the very man turning the heat setting higher and higher. Maybe Obama is the man America needs to educate themselves. Perhaps only when this nation is thoroughly trashed by this man will they finally see the light about how misled they have been. Perhaps his muslim friends will give him a job at the UN when he is done with his destruction here. Remember his words at the UN just a few days ago " The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam", a veiled threat to all who do not subscribe to the false religion of Islam. After all, why would anyone want to "fundamentally transform" the greatest nation on earth, a nation who's system has lifted more people out of poverty than any system prior to. He has done an awesome job of transforming us in a much worse direction. Go ahead and vote for him fools. Maybe it will take 4 more years of this garbage for you to wake up and see just how badly you've been had. Too bad the rest of us will have to endure the same, even though we already know better. Very sad.
mrkirchner
I have never seen a country divided by anyone other than Obama. This is truly pitiful. It reminds me of the over 900 liberals that didn't have motivation, common sense, and found Jim Jones that they had tell them what to do and how to live their life. They gave all their worldly possessions to him and they became his lost sheep. This is almost the same thing with Obama. These people are truly lost. I am waiting for them to drink the Kool Aide that the 900 drank to show there dire support for their Messiah! And we know how that ended!!!!!!!!! Liberals/Democrats = SOCIALIST * Republicans, Independents, Conservatives= TRUE AMERICANS
Let me help you understand a simple concept. The US lost 23 million jobs as a result of the republicans and Bush. So it is reasonable to say that a huge number of those people are on unemployment or are in need of food stamps to feed their families. So Bush is the food stamp president because he and the republicans were responsible for the economy, right? The republicans caused the deficit they scream about not to mention all the soldiers and others who died in the middle east because they started two unjust wars by lying to congress. Why don't you big mouth ass face republicans give me an answer to that? Lets hear it Kirchner you idiot.
Dang liberal elites, with their stupid 'data' and 'science' and hogwash 'math' and all. Who they think they is? Damn Obama ain't gone win, he's a Kenyan Muslim!! USA was in GREAT shape when he took office. Heck, he's not even man enough to start a war with Iran. MORE WAR! MORE WAR! MORE WAR! Bring back W!!!!
Al Qaeda has not been devastated ... did you listen to the chants and pay attention to the graffiti on our embassy walls throughout the middle east?
"Obama, We Are All Osama"
Intelligence the day after the Libyan attack confirmed that it was a planned attack that was tied to Al Qaeda and our administration for two weeks continued to blame a movie trailer that almost no one had seen
Even this week in the POTUS's united nations address brought up the stupid movie once again
There is no investigation going on in Libya right now... No FBI on the ground there, no CIA, Only CNN reporters who walk into an unsecured crime scene and find the private diary of an American ambassador
As for the poll numbers if you are using 2008 voter turn out models with historically high turn out (which typically doesn't happen in a second term election) it gives a 7-9 point advantage to Obama with out any evidence that the same number of voters will turn out.
If you use 2004 and 2000 voter turn out numbers instead of 2008 numbers it puts Romney ahead in almost every poll
Also the Politico George Washington university poll conducted Sept 12-20 found that Romney leads middle class families by 14 points , Romney also led among seniors, veterans, married woman and independents
Well That's a good record Mr. Silver has to taught so it's going to be up to Mr. Romney to prove him wrong.
There is absolutely no way team Romney/Ryan can win this election after insulting 50% of the American people....
This poison arrow already left the bow.......
Republican's ship is sinking and sinking fast!!!!
Sea-man's law ....Captain Romney the last man to jump.....
Right wingers are crying tears but with good reason. Mitt has run a terrible campaign. He was pushed to the right and now he can't get back to the middle. Some Republicans think he should have run further to the right to win but guess what? Right Wing nut cases aren't the majority of the American people nor do they watch FOX News so much that they lose their intelligence. Nate Silver predicted the last election based on numbers and he is doing it again. I would say that the Republicans have been "Outfoxed!"
BorderJoe surely is a fact free imbecile. He needs to check FactCheck.Org rather than listening to whoever makes his Chrystal meth.
Hope all the Obomber groupies are there on Nov. 6, 2012 when America kicks this worthles POS to the curb. All he does is preach hate, race, war on women and class warfare and the stupid Liberals support his hate for America.
It's Romney Tiome. on Nov. 6, 2012.
lucky-1087161
Obama has divided this country like no one else has ever done. The more people he allows on Welfare the more Power and control he has over them. This is straight from Communism, Socialist, Marxist teachings. Obama could care less about our country or the people. REMINDER: Michelle made a public statement how much she HATED America!! This shows real class for the first lady. She and him are FRAUDS and using you liberals for their own agenda!! It is pathetic you liberals can't face Reality, facts and are in DENIAL. Very DELUSIONAL people..
Fuzzbutt, the country was divided long before President Obama graduated high school. Right wing pseudo-christians and bigots were infesting this nation far longer than any of us here have been alive, It is the extremist attempt to destroy America that has brought these nuts to the surface where they can be seen, we should use this opportunity to get rid of them because they are the disease that is destroying America.
Voiceinmyhead
Our country was not nearly as divided and the liberals as Racist ,like Obama, until Obama took office. Even the medias have brought out how Racist Obama is. He is inexperienced, No Leadership , NO QUALIFICATIONS at all. He even failed as a community organizer. He was brought up and studied under Socialist professors, one by the name of Bill Ayers and his parents. If you can't see, which is terribly apparent that Obama is a Socialist, than something is truly wrong with you. All the BS aside, We were all having high hopes Obama would be the person to bring back America. The USA had not been as excited about anyone for a very long time. But America was let down terribly when Obama had not come through and just making a bunch of idle promises. All I can say, is we voted for Obama in 2008 and a lot of people voted for him due to color over QUALIFICATIONS, because of the let down by Bush. But the facts are we have over 24 million people out of work, 47 million people on Food Stamps and Welfare has tripled with the requirements that Bill Clinton set down were taken away by Obama. This is PROOF that Obama is getting everyone he can dependent on the government. This in turn gives the government more POWER and CONTROL over its citizens. These are facts and not GOP BS. If you have read history this is the beginning of a SOCIALIST country. This is not my opinion but facts. Obama has not done ANYTHING to improve the economy or employment. He has even taken millions of unemployment claims out and put them in the disability fund so the unemployment would show less. Again these are facts. I know liberals are against FACTS for whatever reason that doesn't make sense at all. This has nothing to do with anyone having their own opinion, but you have to look at what is black and white. This election we must vote for the best of the worst and Obama has had his chance and has done NOTHING. It's time to give someone else a go at it. The truth is, we have NO one worth a darn to choose from so we have to vote for the best of the worst. We are heading no where fast and more and more people are dependent daily on the government, which is VERY DANGEROUS for our future.
The downfall of Obomber:
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper appears to take the blame for the Obama administration's changing narrative on the U.S. Consulate attack in Libya,
What it it be tomorrow America.. The movie again..
America needs a leader and Romney is the man for the job.
Get the loser out of the WH.
America look what this idiot is costing us in 1 year to live:
Taxpayers spent $1.4B on Obama family in 2011?
This doesn't include the 800 billion he stole from tax payers on the gone gree fraud.
America needs a real leader.
Romney/Ryan on Nov. 6, 2012.
Send Obama packing in Nov. 2012.
Of course he is leading. Liberals believe every lie they tell.
Obama is leading his sheep into a FEMA camp where he can control them better. They don't have the brains to come in from the rain since they drank the kool aide!!
It is one thing to remain silent and to be thought of as a fool.. quite another to open ones mouth and remove all doubt. The root of "Progressive is progress and to be "Liberal " is to able to have ones own thoughts. Not to simply regurgitate someone else s dribble. "I think therefore I am" ..."Things just keep getting curiouser and curiouser" -Alice In Wonderland
It's about time the right got real. People are not buying the smoke and mirrors.
We have real issues and real problems.
Obama is willing to have the debate, but the right wants to hide behind the same old garbage.
They hide because they cannot win the debate fair and square. They hide because instead of nominating the best candidate, they have nominated someone the back room boys can run.
The election of 2008 was clear in results. We got a fairly elected POTUS. Trying to discredit Obama because so many people were reasonably unhappy with the mess of 2000, and never felt that was handled right is childish.
Trying to suppress the vote is just plain wrong. That is what is being attempted this year. A citzen's right to vote is every bit as sacred as Miranda rights, and in truth, it is the biggest difference between having a say in government and taking orders. Taking that right is tyranny, pure and simple.
Many city dwellers have no need for a driver's license. The poor do not fly, they do without what they cannot buy without a license. The elderly do likewise when they don't have a license anymore. There are millions of adults who don't have ID, who are legitimate citizens with the right to vote.
The laws do not fix problems. People obtain ID fraudulently every day.
The real voter fraud issue is with absentee ballots, and that is not addressed by these laws. Their only purpose is to prevent citizens from exercising their rights.
If the poor lose their rights, the rest of us will be next.
I think all citizens need to go back to school and take civics. It appears no one understands that Congress legislates. Presidents don't make or pass laws. It's congress and ours are a bunch of hypocrites who are more concerned with their power than their country. Example-Senator Brown, MA staff. What does their name calling and making fun have to do with issues or running the state? We need better representation in our government. Economic patriotism well applies.
To be honest,Why? Because, for the first time, OBAMA mainstream medicine's deadliest conspiracy has been EXPOSED,Obama’s SAID misinformation about the Libyan embassy attack, Obama in private is just laughing his a– off at all of you american because you are so dumb, so gullible, so easily manipulated.
DESTROY all the right wing hatred by all means necessary, they are the disease that is destroying this nation. They are the elitist, the pseudo-christain, the money changers, the poison that bleeds our nation, the warmongers and the haters.
Voiceinmyhead
The media has already stated that Liberals =SOCIALIST. Sorry but you are just stating your warped opinion! Nothing of substance or anything you can substantiate! It has also been documented that the Democrat party is the biggest racist of all parties. Due to the fact that Obama is doing less for the American blacks than all past administrations in the last 60 years. Blacks have a higher unemployment than in the past under Obama!! The Republicans freed the slaves, Republicans got the right to vote for the blacks and the Republicans got equal right Amendments for the blacks. It's been the Democrats that have kept the blacks from evolving and doing what they can to stifle them in all means necessary.
What the repubs. don't realize is that all of us that will vote for B.H.O. are not necessary voting for him because we like all his polices. Many of us will vote for him because voting for R-R would be suicide. We are tired of war, tired of the well-off receiving all, and the rest paying for it. We are tired of the repubs. taking away the rights of the middle class, while they try to impose their right wing views on us. We feel that the economy is not expanding fast enough, but know with the worlds economy in the dumps, and that four years ago we were losing 700,000 jobs a month, that has been turned around. We are not willing to go back to the bush years. We do not want vouchers for medicare for us or our children, privatized social security, a women's right to choose, and we want med. ins for all, not just for the ones that the ins. companies can make huge profits on. We know that trickle down does not work. Not all of pres B.O. are going fast enough, but it is far better than going backward under Romney.
Just checked out the realclearpolitics list of polls.
Obama now winning -> every/single/poll.
Fox.
Rassmussen.
*All of them*
Goodbye Mitt.