New York Times numbers guru Nate Silver says recent polling clearly shows President Obama as the front runner. While the lead may be small, Silver concedes, likening it to a one-touchdown lead in football game, “late in the fourth quarter, that can become pretty meaningful especially if you have kind of have possession of the football.”
“Obama got a convention bounce and it seemed like his momentum was flagging a bit and then frankly since [Romney’s] 47 percent [comments] came out, now you’re seeing Obama with numbers as strong as they’ve been all year,” he said.
Silver, who puts the president’s chance of winning re-election at 80 percent, has gained a reputation for his political prognosticating. In 2008, he correctly picked 49 out of the 50 states in the presidential race, as well as the eventual winner in all 35 senate races. His new book, The Signal and the Noise, looks at, as the subtitle suggests, "why so many predictions fail - but some don't."
Watch David's entire PRESS Pass interview with Nate Silver above to hear more about the 2012 race, and what sports can teach us about predicting elections.