By Alex Castellanos
As the strangest GOP primary in memory sails farther into unchartered waters, four candidates had much to appreciate this Thanksgiving. Others, after the CNN-Heritage debate, hope Christmas will be kinder.
Mitt Romney: The good news for Romney is that he again performed to near perfection. The bad news, unfortunately, is the same. Romney has unmatched experience and is campaigning at the peak of his powers, yet still can't separate himself from the pack and earn the love of his party's base. The post-debate narrative is not about Mitt. It is about Romney alternatives: Did Huntsman make himself competitive in New Hampshire with a performance equal, if not superior, to Romney's? Did Gingrich soar too close to the sun only to once again melt his wings? And where has Michele Bachmann been hiding this serious and presidential version of Michele Bachmann?
Romney keeps playing it safe, with a game that would make Dean Smith proud. The governor is retreating to the "four-corners," the Carolina coach's famous, "take-time-off-the-clock" offense. Unlike Romney, however, Dean Smith only employed delaying tactics when he had a lead. If the GOP's anti-establishment or conservative wings coalesce around another candidate, Romney could suddenly find himself lagging a surging opponent for whom he has shortened the game.
And what is Romney's plan to build national momentum beyond the Granite State, where a victory is already built into his stock price? If Romney loses New Hampshire, he makes news. Winning there may have no more shock value than announcing it's cold in January in Concord. Romney is stuck under 30% on polls nearly everywhere outside New Hampshire. It is not certain that a New Hampshire win, if viewed as a regional victory, is now enough to take Romney to a higher plane.
Newt Gingrich: I've been critical of the former Speaker but in the CNN foreign policy debate, he was a profile in courage. Republicans were privileged to see Gingrich's "Nixon goes to China" moment: Only Gingrich, a known and trusted denizen of the right, could take the GOP where he did. He said what every Republican believes but many can't admit: We are not a people or a party who are going to dispose of families who've gone to church, worked hard, payed taxes, educated their children along sides ours, and contributed to our economy for 25 years, while the federal government failed to shut our back door. No one else on the stage could get away with saying that, perhaps, not even Gingrich. This display of strength will hurt Gingrich with the base, though it also elevates him to a status above political self-interest, a plateau currently beyond Romney. If Mitt Romney can survive RomneyCare, perhaps Gingrich can survive caring? It would speak well of the GOP if he did.
Can Newt Gingrich possibly win this nomination? Today, no. However, if Romney's balloon-thin campaign suffers the slightest prick, no one else can win it, either. Then it's anybody's game, including Gingrich's. A Palin endorsement could take Gingrich over the hump on immigration and help him congeal the right. It would compel Romney to land the Huckabee endorsement to counter. Swallow hard, Romneyites: Can you say, "Vice-President Huckabee?"
Michele Bachmann: If a Martian dropped to earth for his virginal visit and saw the recent GOP debate, he would have wondered, "What is Ron Paul doing so far from his home planet?" He also would have asked, "Why isn't Michelle Bachmann among the contenders?" If this had been the first day of her campaign, Bachmann's impressive performance would have sparked a boomlet. Bachmann's problem, however, is that the Martians have been around awhile. They've seen Bachmann constrict her appeal through the summer, in a needless effort to compete with Perry on the right. Little did she know Perry would run such an effective campaign against himself. If Bachmann had spent the summer after her Des Moines Straw Poll victory running against Obama, not Perry, and focusing on economics, not social issues, she would find herself stronger. More importantly, narrowing her focus to Iowa was a mistake of apocalyptic proportion: Bachmann sent her party a message that she was a candidate without national appeal, the same error inflicted upon Tim Pawlenty by Tim Pawlenty. Lesson from Herman Cain: Campaigns today take place on national cable, talk radio and that new fangled Internet thingy, not in Iowa and New Hampshire. It's not too late for Bachmann to start playing in the national arena, but only seconds remain on the clock. The new Bachmann message for the next debate? Republican Economic Feminism: "There may be eight other candidates running for President on this stage, but there is only one mom. We are not going to be the first generation of American women to leave our children less of an America than we were given. Gentlemen, we've seen what you can do. Please, step aside. Here's how we are going to break down business as usual in Washington and get this economy back to work." Is that enough to drive Bachmann to the finish line? Probably not, but it might get her back in the game.
Jon Huntsman: No one ever out-smarts Newt Gingrich, but jaws dropped in the Las Vegas-CNN debate when Romney bested the former Speaker in their exchange on health care mandates. At that moment, Romney won Gingrich's respect: Newt now cedes that Romney will be one of the last two standing. This debate, however, it was Huntsman who took the last word in the intellectual head-butting contest with Romney, as they sparred about Afghanistan. Huntsman's back and forth with Romney was his best moment of the campaign. His impressive performance is complemented with either masterful or fortuitous timing: Huntsman's Super-Pac has started to place multi-million dollar buys in the Boston media market, wall-papering New Hampshire with TV ads. Surely more spending will follow. Huntsman will need to spend every dime because New Hampshire must give him at least the appearance of a win.
For some reason, Huntsman has made Romney his first playoff game. Loser leave town, it's Romney vs. Huntsman in New Hampshire. Huntsman is not fighting to be the leading anti-Romney conservative, he's trying to fill exactly the same space as Mitt Romney. If Gingrich, Bachmann or even Cain roar out of Iowa, the GOP establishment will take to the barricades in New Hampshire, hair on fire. Barring a Romney Cornhusker win which ends this contest early, New Hampshire conservatives will be rallying around the Iowa winner, while a panicky Republican establishment pins a badge on either Romney or Huntsman and sends him out at high noon for the gunfight. Expectations may not require Huntsman to win New Hampshire but, perceptually, he must edge Mitt Romney on January 10th with sufficient momentum to carry Florida to end off the month. That means Huntsman has more urgent need to go negative against Romney than any other candidate -- even though he hasn't yet run enough positive TV to attract voters he may cleave from his Republican twin. To borrow an old joke, Jon Huntsman doesn't have to outrun the bear, just Mitt Romney. Bottom line: Expect more positive and negative ads soon. Now or never, this is Huntsman's moment to unleash.
Herman Cain: The Godfather's Pizza CEO now falls among those who have less to be thankful for, entering December. Truth is usually a simple thing. Too many explanations can raise as much doubt as none at all. When publicly charged with mistreatment of women, Cain over-explained his innocence and, in the end, resolved nothing. Compound that with a debate on foreign policy that took even his one-dimensional 9-9-9 plan out of his rhetorical arsenal and Cain is left with an empty holster. Gabby Hayes was the most famous cowboy movie sidekick of all time, parodied in Blazing Saddles for saying, "consarn it," "yer dern tootin", "young whippersnapper" and the ever useful "dadgumit!" We almost expect Herman Cain to conclude everything he says next debate the same way.
Rick Perry: In every debate, poor Rick Perry is the man who keeps pushing on the door marked "pull." This time, it wasn't what he forgot that got him in trouble. It was what he remembered. Explaining his shoot-from-the-hip Pakistan policy, he reduced our relationship with a country bristling with 100 nuclear weapons to a macho ultimatum. He elevated his campaign from hapless to a threat to global security.
Note to Team Perry: There is no law requiring candidates to debate. You are actually allowed to serve your own interests. Perry's campaign team, however, is the same unit that tied Newt Gingrich's shoelaces together as he stumbled out of the starting gate. Now, they have similarly graced Perry, allowing him not only to enter the race unready and unskilled, but also to debate unprepared. This Gingrich-Perry team enjoys a rare distinction: The same campaign professionals have killed their own candidates twice in one election. Even Rick Perry deserves better. Does that mean Perry is out of it? No. If Mitt Romney gets hit by a bus, crushed by an asteroid or merely slips on a patch of ice in Manchester, any Republican, even Perry, can still seize this nomination. It makes no difference if others take a step forward or Mitt Romney takes a step back.
And that's the most remarkable development, or non-development, of this election. Month after month, dollar after dollar, debate after debate, we've seen we've Mitt Romney at his best, yet failing to pull away from the field. Romney is still leaving the door open to those who have fallen to the "B" tier. He is giving all his opponents the opportunity to get back into this contest. If Romney doesn't energize his campaign soon, somebody might actually try to win this race besides him.
That might not be hard to do. His competitors are about 10 minutes away from figuring out it is in all their interest to go negative on Romney and drag him down to their level. If they test Romney and fail, nothing is lost. In fact, they'll strengthen Romney and probably make him President. But if any candidate effectively cuts Romney, others will see blood in the water. The sharks will circle. They'll start thinking, "Hey, anybody could win this race." They'll squint, "I could win this race!"
Somewhere Barack Obama is smiling. If they bring Mitt Romney down, it's jump ball for the GOP.
Alex Castellanos is a Republican strategist and frequent guest on our political roundtable.
Leave a Comment:
The writer's omission of Representative Paul tells me he's either ethically, or intellectually, unfit for print. Oh, never mind: He's a Republican strategist. Wake up NBC, or become irrelevant. Journalism is about independence.
- former Daily newspaper editor
Sadly, journalism was about independence. Now most of them - like this greasy man with the mustache who wrote this article - have become little minions who vet everything with their bosses.
I enjoyed your article. But for the substitution of 'cornhuskers' for 'hawkeyes' and a rambling Gabby Hayes detour it shows both intellectual acuity and a facility with the language. I would encourage this website, however, to engage an editor who has the time & inclination to review articles prior to publication. Seriously. Even the best writers benefit from editng.
i was bumped here from huffpo so please excuse my ignorance....if this is a site sponsered or edited by Dick Gregory, it has been edited as much as it's going to be. Dick Gregory is the primary reason i quit watching Meet The Press
Mitt Romney has his church pushing the "Mormon is just like anyone else" campaign to soften up the body politic before he pushes harder in the heavy Catholic and Baptist geographic areas.
If a Martian dropped to earth for his virginal visit and saw the recent GOP debate, he would have wondered, "What is Ron Paul doing so far from his home planet?"
I guess you Alex Castellanos, really haven't noticed the surge Ron Paul is making debate after debate because he is the Only Candidate who is not of the Established More War Republicans.
War isn't popular, Liberty and Freedom certainly are. With all that is happening in Ron Paul's Camp sir, I would take a better look if I were you and maybe actually open your ears and listen to the People of America. Your opinion is one, we are the majority.
The War mongers are doing everything they can to piss off the rest of the world to possibly attempt propelling us into WWIII with the missile defense system encircling Russia without collaboration and agreement between the US and Russia and the threats from all the other GOP contenders to use military force against Iran for a statement that was totally misquoted and repeated, is unamerican.
What's wrong with giving Peace a Chance? We have instant, worldwide information sharing, something unheard of ever before. Why can't Journalists follow the Oath they take to be Journalists? Your Opinion Alex Castellanos, doesn't count sir.
Ron Paul 2012
Restore America Now!
Today is the day after Thanksgiving and we all need to pause a moment and see where we are. Our country is in debt over 15 trillion dollars. Unemployment exceeds 25million. Over 1.6 million bankruptcies this year. Over 47 million on food stamps. Over 1 million forclosures this year. Over 116.5 trillon dollars in Unfunded Liabilities. Each man woman and child alive today would have to pay 48 thousand dollars to pay off just our federal debt. The democrats don't want to stop spending. The republicans do not want to raise taxes "thank GOD". The house of represenatives has a republican majority while the senate is controled by the Democrats. We have grid lock at every level of the federal government. Our news media is so bias and slanted to there own greedy aspirations that the public must read between the lines and do there own research to get the facts. Our borders are open to friend and foe. Retired people can not get a fair return on there savings accounts. Drugs and health care cost are going through the sealing. Europe is broke. Africa is starving. Middle East out of control. Latin America undergoing dangerous change. The joy of fighting one another is over. If you love this country, then we all need to start showing it. Good luck to all.
Let us give Ron Paul a chance. think about no children fighting wars for energy needs and America finding and using its own energy and growing it own food and let the rest of the world take care of them self with our our interference we had a civil war no one interfered. let them fight amongst themselves. and live their life killing one another as they have done for years and let us help our nation . this is not selfishness it is called minding our own business. Ron Paul has the right Idea in getting rid of toal government control of its people and letting America get back to work with out the fear of being taxed to the point of letting the government create our jobs and furnish our housing and feed us this textured food they will call meat but is government made food with nutrients added and take our natural food from us this is where we are heading. give peace a chance vote Ron Paul or Herman Cain , or Newt Gingrich!
how would anyone be giving peace a chance by supporting Gingrich or Cain??
"If a Martian dropped to earth for his virginal visit and saw the recent GOP debate, he would have wondered, 'What is Ron Paul doing so far from his home planet?'"
Wow. What an incredibly biased and ignorant statement. That you ignore Ron Paul, whom many pundits and commentators believe won the debate, or engage in appeals to ridicule shows the weak position of the GOP and its "leaders."
You praise Bachman, who doesn't even know how to use the word "existential."
Neo-con pundits like you, Alex, laughed and marginalized Ron Paul four years ago when he predicted America's impending bankruptcy. When the dollar collapses and you lose everything, maybe you and the GOP establishment will regret not listening. Until then, have a nice day.
If a Martian dropped to earth for his virginal visit and saw the recent GOP debate, he would have wondered, "What is Ron Paul doing so far from his home planet?"
lol !!!!!!!!11
Ron Paul is an alien! Hahahaha! I get it! You know what's even funnier? He's tied for first in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, and poised for victory in Nevada. Maybe you're right. He does kind of look like an alien on stage next to a serial adulterer, the quintessential lying flip-flopper, the brain dead businessman, and the rest of the SNL fodder. It's a sad world when being honest and intelligent makes you an alien.
Why does the world need Republican and Democratic 'strategists' again? I guess without people like you, Karl Rove, and David Axelrod, we'd have to distort the facts for ourselves, and who has time for that these days? So keep fighting the good fight Sir. Polish those turds, muzzle the truth, and one fine morning people will forget how to think entirely, and your job will become useful.
Agreed! As an Obama Democrat I can only say that, of all the Republican candidates, Ron Paul is the only decent one among them. I don't agree with many of his ideas, but I find him to be refreshingly honest, and unafraid to voice his opinions.
PS
Thank you MSNBC for making me take the extra steps to unsubscribe from all the spam you automatically signed me up for. Quality.
PPS
And then I have to enter a captcha because THIS comment is suspected spam. That's rich.
Not that CNN is a reputable news source, but you'd at least think that the candidate who is currently beating all other candidates among caucus-goers in Iowa, is polling exceptionally strong among young people of both political persuasions, has more support from active military servicemen than all other candidates combined, would make the list (Ron Paul if you're not quick on the draw)... Granted he doesn't fit your generic GOP mold (not sure when following the constitution was such a radical idea and a departure for Republicans but whatever)...
At least try to peek your head out of your entrenched mindset - after all it's your generation... on BOTH sides that bankrupt our nation both financially and morally... When will you and the rest of your kind retire on benefits we'll pay for, and leave the cleaning up to the rest of us.
The only comment worth making is this PMSNBC or DNCNBC whatever you prefer to be called SUCKS> F you faggots and lesbian crack whores. Do not ever dare report on republicans again you @!$%#heads
Are we feeling better now?
" Do not ever dare report on republicans again you @!$%#heads"
There's not much to report , the Republican field sucks massively. No news there.
"If Mitt Romney can survive RomneyCare, perhaps Gingrich can survive caring?" What a hack... I could continue reading this guys slanted propaganda after that statement. These liberals "care" so much that they are spending their grand children's future to support their socialistic ways... Is that really caring?
Our economy was destroyed by the rich, not the poor, and our grandchildren's future is being threatened by the same. Restore sustainable tax rates. Quit redistributing wealth to the rich and quit the entitlement mentality that says once you steal it, you can keep it.
Curt-Bud, what a load of hogwash. I, for one, am so tired of the same old rhetoric....socialist, communist, marxist, boogman-ist and the rest. This mess was a long time coming and will be a long time going. Its gonna take more than 2,4,6,8 years to fix. So, our children are going to have to deal with it anyways. Its not a socialist conspiracy or death panels, or "we broke" yip yap. Its about manufacturing. Its about 21st century jobs to replace those that aren't coming back. Its about compromise. Its about give and take. Its about insuring that the health of the country and its people is in order to deal with the mess. Its not about you or me. Its about us. Which of those candidates we've seen over the past few week's/month's really reaches out and touches you? Which one's speak to you? Which one talks about "us"? Get back with me. I eagerly look forward to your comments.
The present modus operandi for the republican "elite" is to intentionally avoid speaking the name "Ron Paul" unless it is used in a derogatory statement. They included Bachmann and Cain in conversations and writings only to demonstrate they accept all people, regardless of race or gender, in the former "white man only" party; but they intentionally exclude the name of an intelligent man that consistently places in the top of all GOP polling.
See, the mainstream has this allergic reaction to the likes of Ron Paul, such a shame, because like I personally know people that really depend on the TV to form their opinions about the candidates. When you have someone like Ron Paul, constantly being marginalized, despite polling in the top tier, the media bias becomes obvious. It does leave one pondering why, though?
You really left out Ron Paul you Idiot- didn't you?
Great summary of the worst GOP field in history. I find it entertaining. Its really gross how the GOP goofballs who make comments to a decent article are such sick bigots. I suspect that is why the GOP has sunk to the bottom of the barrel of garbage.
OMG I'm not even a strategist on team Obama, but I'm frankly giddy as a schoolgirl at the thought of nominating anyone from this slate of candidates for the Republicans! Can you imagine ANY of them in a national stage??? The trolls all come out for Ron Paul but the moment he starts spouting his 19th century ideas everyone will realize he's crackers. Bachmann? Now there's a monument to the R's finally gone bat guano crazy. Huntsman is the only one I'd like to see better numbers for because he's actually sane. The Newt? Really? You want to put someone this morally bankrupt up as the nominee? Cain? BWWWWWHAHAHAHA! More crazy! Besides, he did this to sell books and charge fat fees for speaking (see Palin) not to actually run.
Even Mitt. He's going to get slaughtered by the "I was for it before I was against it" and his Holy Underwear (but that will be silent, never on the news just whispered between people like we do now while we all say it doesn't matter but we know it does). In my mind the biggest question of this election is will the nominee help the House and Senate elections, or will the party veer off the rails and drag down everyone with it? Not that I wouldn't love to see Boehner cry again as he loses his speaker's gavel because I believe he deserves to, but honestly, the crazy is out of control and all they can offer is the Republican version of John Kerry. Brilliant.
man you're so used to watching these bs politicians that you cant recognize a real statesman when one shows up. Try watching some Ron paul videos on youtube, you can find a lot of them about people who now support Ron Paul, LISTEN and cut the crap, Ron Paul does make sense, even if it seems strange to you.
humm, maybe I should sound more moderate, forgive me. Anyway all I mean is listen a second time to his philosophy and rethink it
The Constitution was a 19th century idea?
ron paul is a 19th century candidate
Religious bigotry is inappropriate in governmental affairs. Inaccurate statements highlight one's bigotry. Actually, many members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints which you refer to by the nickname "Mormon" are extremely hesitant to see Romney as president because they know it will only increase the bigotry against the church since often nearly half of the nation hates whoever is president. The "I am a Mormon" campaign was started years before Romney entered the 2012 presidential primary.
While the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints have done many campaigns and public service announcements for decades on television, the "I am a Mormon" campaign is new this year and was announced by church leaders for 2011-2012. It began in New York in June to "correct misconceptions about the church's teachings and practices."
Oh who are you kidding Fayeanne, Christians are some of the most religiously bigoted people on the planet, unless you think that thinking you're going to heaven while everyone else is doomed to be tortured for eternity is not bigotry. In any sane person's book it is, but we're talking about most Republicans these days.
So let's just call a spade a spade and admit that Religious bigotry is a part of it, so is being anti-immigration because these people are, you know, brown and speak Spanish, and it's class warfare when we suggest taxing people who make more (and we had to bail out) more. Right. Save it.
From what I've seen here FrequentFly, is that you are the biggest bigot on here... Someday reality will set in for you and you will realize, "THIS COUNTRY IS TO BROKE FOR YOUR LIBERAL SOCIALISTIC PROGRAMS...!!! Lol... Duh...!!! Obama has less then 38% of his own parties vote...! That says it all...!!! "OBAMBUSH IS DONE...!!! :-)
Damn man, I agree 100% . If a race of More intelligent beings did show up they probably would say that about Ron Paul. Not likely they would have anything in common with those other primitives on the stage.
RON PAUL OR NOT AT ALL.
As for you...ever heard of Tar and Feathers...Right after the election ... all you bozos will be unemployed...
He added one sentence referring to Dr. Paul. The opening sentence for Michelle Bachmann section:
Michele Bachmann: If a Martian dropped to earth for his virginal visit and saw the recent GOP debate, he would have wondered, "What is Ron Paul doing so far from his home planet?"
Talk about marginalizing, he didn't even put Ron Paul's name in bold print to let anyone know that he did print a sentence.
We all know what opinions are compared with, and most of them stink, especially from this so called analyst, who claims to be an expert to sway the opinion of the weak minded people they do not believe can think for themselves, or be wise enough to research truth.
Ron Paul:
Does not run from his voting record. Respects our Constitution, believes in the rule of law, is honest, and has the integrity to not be bought by special interest groups or lobbyist, and humbly takes his oath of office to defend and protect the constitution, and represent the people and our Country's interests seriously.
Ron Paul is a hapless politician with many complaints and very little practical solutions. That's why he not taken as a serious contender.
If you haven't looked up his ideas or his solutions then you shouldn't speak. You speak from ignorance and that's why you aren't taken seriously. Ron Paul, on the other hand, is taken seriously which is why he is being derided and ignored by establishment republicans. He is a threat to their fascist views because he reminds people what true conservatism is, and it isn't a perpetual war/police state that borrows and spends.
Alex Castellanos, your opening sentence says this is the "strangest GOP primary in memory".
How exactly is it "stranger" than the one four years ago when in late November 2007 the candidates still included McCain, Romney, Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and others?
Is your memory's duration shorter than four years?
It will be a great day when dirty filthy globalist neocons like you Castellanos, will be gone forever from our politics. It's people like you that have turned this one great nation into a near bankrupt quasi socialist war state. More and more people everyday are waking up. You're scared of the ideas that Ron Paul espouses. Why? Because you are scared of true liberty and true freedom. You are scared of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. You are like the loyalists from the Revolutionary War, afraid to fight for what's right. And in the end, you (the socialist/liberal neocons), and the democrats, and both your failing ideas, will undoubtedly fail. Hopefully they won't bring the rest of us down with it.
Ron Paul is 100000000x the man you and your globalist socialist friends masquerading as conservatives will ever be.
The words Gingrich and trusted don't belong in the same sentence.
Cheap shot at Ron Paul. You must have just wanted hits to your story because you sure weren't looking for respect.
Really? Nothing about Ron Paul? Did you forget about him and prefer not to correct your text? Did you did it on purpose? Do you think its ok ignore Ron Paul because the rest of the mainstream media does so? Don't you see how he is totally relevant and surprisingly popular? I have been observing that the censorship of Ron Paul's candidacy in some media like this one (sadly) in reality starts to bother a lot of people and are turning to Paul and paying more attention to him as a way to respond to the media's attempt at influencing the people's choice. Please get serious, please correct your article Mr Castellanos, or follow up on this or shame on you for damaging the democratic process.